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Joshua Cox
Joshua Cox

Daily Releases (17 Aug, 2020)

In this analysis, we used a combination of energy, activity and policy data available up to the end of April 2020 to estimate the changes in daily emissions during the confinement from the COVID-19 pandemic, and its implications for the growth in CO2 emissions in 2020. We compared this change in emissions to the mean daily emissions for the latest available year (2019 for the globe) to provide a quantitative measure of relative change compared to pre-COVID conditions.

Daily Releases (17 Aug, 2020)

The confinement index (CI) is defined on a scale of 0 to 3 and allocates the degree to which normal daily activities were constrained for part or all of the population (Table 1). Scale 0 indicates no measures were in place, scale 1 indicates policies targeted at small groups of individuals suspected of carrying infection, scale 2 indicates policies targeted at entire cities or regions or that affect about 50% of society and scale 3 indicates national policies that substantially restrict the daily routine of all but key workers (Supplementary Extended Methods). During the early confinement phase around Chinese New Year in China (starting 25 January 2020), around 30% of global emissions were in areas under some confinement (Fig. 1). This increased to 70% by the end of February, and over 85% by mid-March when confinement in Europe, India and the United States started, as China relaxed confinement (Fig. 1). At its peak in early April, 89% of global emissions were in areas under some confinement.

The choice of parameters by sector is based on data that represent changes in activity rather than directly changes in CO2 emissions, and on assumptions about the nature of the confinement. Most data are available daily up to 15 April 2020. All the data (Fig. 2) are representative of changes compared to a typical day prior to confinement, taking into account seasonality and day of the week. The changes were calculated differently depending on the data availability and the causes of the seasonality and weekly variability. The uncertainty represents approximately 1σ. Sectors and parameter choices are described in detail in Supplementary Extended Methods with the key elements summarized here.

In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions.

Once you click the link to subscribe to the daily reports you will land on the Notify Me page. You enter your email address at the top of the page and then scroll down to select Daily Police Activity Reports under the category News Flash, see the screen capture below. You will receive the daily report and police press releases once you confirm your subscription via email. Subscribe to receive the Reports via email. 041b061a72


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